Clancy DuBos

Sen. Jim Jeffords’ defection from the GOP will have immediate as well as long-term effects on Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu. In the short run, she’s a big winner. In the long run, she’ll be in the GOP cross hairs more than ever.

  The Republicans already had targeted Landrieu as a vulnerable Democrat in the 2002 election cycle. They consider her a thinly veiled liberal who’s got no business representing a conservative Southern state. Most Landrieu watchers give her credit for moving to the middle and following the lead of her conservative colleague, Louisiana Sen. John Breaux, on key issues.

  Before Jeffords bolted, the GOP and the Democrats each held 50 Senate seats, with Vice President Dick Cheney breaking all ties for the Republicans. The GOP’s hold on the Senate was especially tenuous in light of South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond’s ill health. If he should die before his current term expires in 2002, South Carolina’s Democratic governor likely would name a Democrat to succeed Thurmond. That prospect was already giving the GOP fits; now there’s the possibility that the party of George W. Bush will be two seats shy of a Senate majority in the mid-term elections.

  So, from a Republican perspective, Landrieu is an inviting target. This week or next she will cast the "deciding" vote to put Sen. Tom Daschle, a liberal Democrat, in charge of the Senate. At least, that’s how the Republicans will paint it. Daschle, say GOP faithful, stands for everything that Louisiana is against, and vice versa. They can’t wait to paint Landrieu as being in league with the liberals who are out to derail President Bush’s agenda.

  Meanwhile, Landrieu will have plenty of opportunities to shine.

  For starters, she sits on two of the Senate’s "Super A" committees – Armed Services and Appropriations. That’s quite a feat for a freshman senator. She will also chair two sub-committees – the District of Columbia Subcommittee of Appropriations and the Emerging Threats Subcommittee of Armed Services.

  The D.C. subcommittee is not exactly a "glamour" assignment. But it’s one of only 13 Appropriations subcommittees, and that’s where the money is. Landrieu thus will be among the Appropriations elite; she will have more clout than many of her seniors. You can bet she’ll parlay that into some pork for the folks back home.

  On Armed Services (a favorite among conservatives), she will have a glamour job as chair or the Emerging Threats subcommittee. That one deals with the high-tech and super-hush-hush Tom Clancy stuff. It’s important, and sexy.

  Most of all, Landrieu knows how to campaign. She’s tireless, and the one mistake that all of her opponents historically have made is underestimating her ability to get votes.

  Louisiana Republicans have their own problems, meanwhile. Namely, not being able to unite behind a single candidate against Landrieu. Both Congressman John Cooksey of Monroe and Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik-Terrell are interested in running against Landrieu. That scenario sounds painfully familiar to the GOP, which had too many horses in Landrieu’s first Senate race in 1996. They wound up with the GOP’s weakest link, Woody Jenkins, in the runoff.

  Actually, having both Cooksey and Terrell in the race could be a boon to the GOP this time around. Unlike 1996, Landrieu likely would be the only serious Democrat in the race. The GOP’s problem in ’96 was the prospect of two Democrats – Landrieu and Attorney General Richard Ieyoub – making it to the runoff. In 2002, it’s much more likely that if both Terrell and Cooksey run, Landrieu would face one of them in the runoff.

  Best of all for the GOP, that runoff (thanks to Louisiana’s unique open primary system) would be on Dec. 7, 2002. It would be the only Senate race in the country, thus focusing even more attention on Landrieu as a GOP target. Moreover, the prospects of generating a big black voter turnout, which Landrieu needs, could be dimmer with nothing else on the ballot.

  Indeed, Dec. 7, 2002, could be a date which will live in infamy – either for Landrieu or for the state and national GOP. .