Saturday, May 10, 2008
Buyer's Remorse Again?
Posted by Clancy DuBos on Sat, May 10, 2008 at 2:21 PM
A recent survey of New Orleans voters shows Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu easily winning the next mayor’s race, which is still 21 months and a presidential election away. Landrieu, however, is not getting overly excited about the numbers — for several reasons.
The results remind me of statewide post-Katrina polls showing Bobby Jindal easily beating Kathleen Blanco in a rematch of their 2003 gubernatorial runoff, which Blanco narrowly won.
In the case of Blanco and Jindal, it was a massive case of post-Katrina buyer’s remorse. Reading the recent survey of New Orleans voters, one is tempted to reach the same conclusion with regard to Landrieu and Mayor Ray Nagin, who narrowly defeated the lieutenant governor in a May 2006 runoff.
But there are several key differences this time. Let’s look at the numbers to understand why.
In a trial heat featuring six potential mayoral candidates, voters expressed the following preferences:
Landrieu, 45%
Councilman Arnie Fielkow, 21%
Councilman James Carter, 5%
Attorney Rob Couhig, 4%
Businessman Roy Glapion, 3%
State Sen. Ed Murray, 2%
Uncertain, 20%
A breakdown of those results along racial lines is revealing. Landrieu gets 52 percent among black voters and 36 percent among whites; Fielkow gets only 8 percent among blacks, but his 37 percent among whites actually beats Landrieu by 1 percentage point in that demographic.
The survey was taken April 25-26 by Verne Kennedy, a veteran pollster, for a group of New Orleans business people who regularly hire Kennedy to conduct local and statewide surveys. The sample size was 400 registered voters.
“It’s way too early to talk about the next mayor’s race,” Landrieu says, adding that he was nonetheless happy that local voters rate him highly. The survey showed the lieutenant governor with 79 percent “favorable” name recognition among whites and 70 percent among blacks.
So why isn’t this another case of buyer’s remorse?
First, Nagin cannot seek another term, so the rematch factor is not there. Second, the survey did not measure Nagin’s standing among voters, so it’s impossible to conclude with any degree of confidence that Landrieu’s current popularity is a reaction to Nagin’s presumed unpopularity. There may well be an element of buyer’s remorse out there in favor of Landrieu, but this survey did not measure it.
Third, and perhaps most telling of all, the survey actually has some good news for the mayor. By a margin of more than 2-to-1, voters said they think New Orleans is moving in the right direction. The actual numbers were 56 percent saying the city is on the right track, while only 23 percent said it was on the wrong track.
For all the grief that Nagin gets about the slow pace of recovery, he should take great consolation in those numbers — the movement may be slow, but at least people feel it’s in the right direction.
As for Landrieu’s mayoral prospects, right now there’s a lot more speculation about him becoming governor. Here again, he’s not doing much of anything to make that happen, but, just as Katrina boosted Jindal’s fortunes, events beyond his control could catapult Landrieu into the governor’s office.
Almost lost amid the hubbub about Jindal possibly being tapped as John McCain’s running mate in the presidential race is the fact that, should that happen and should McCain win, Landrieu would automatically become governor next Jan. 20.
Which explains why Landrieu is not overly excited about running for mayor again. Even if Jindal remains governor, many believe Landrieu would rather stick around and run for governor someday.
Which leaves the rest of the field. The survey measured only one trial heat without Landrieu — a head-to-head matchup between Fielkow and Carter. In that one, Fielkow beat Carter 55 percent to 21 percent. Interestingly, Fielkow, who is white, led Carter, who is black, even among African-American voters — by a margin of 38 percent to 33 percent. Among whites, Fielkow led 75 percent to 7 percent.
Unlike Landrieu, Fielkow and Carter have both quietly encouraged talk of their potential candidacies. But, as we’ve seen so often before, a lot can happen in the space of 21 months.
Comments (1)
Showing 1-1 of 1
Larry Flynt To Run For Mayor Of New Orleans by Bourgeios Teauxdeaux…”on the beat off the record" [dateline: Flint, Michigan] One-time Presidential candidate, free speech activist, beaver enthusiast and inventor of "The Wheelie! Protective Cup", Larry Flynt announced today his intention to run for mayor of New Orleans. But why announce in Flint, Michigan? "Well, I like the name recognition." says Flynt, in Flint. "People often call me a skin-flint. And also, everyone knows how Flint starred in Michael Moore's first movie. What a lot of people don't know is that Michael starred in one of my movies back in the 70s and worked for me as a cub intern early in his career. That's right. Where do you think he first learned the secret ins and outs of hidden-camera blackma—err'a, I mean, documentary film making? But does he ever remember to mention who gave him his first shot, who broke him in, taught him the ropes, taught him how to struggle, how to behave, how to say 'yes please, Mr. Larry, may i have another?' Does he ever think of me when palms his little Oscar? Nah! What a pig." When asked about his reasons for leaving a lucrative position at the head of such an ostentatious pornography potentatency (OPP) to try to run the city of New Orleans, arguably the least lucrative work in the OPP business, the Master Bater had this to say, "Leave this? You gotta be joking. But hey, didn't Nagin prove that you don't have to actually "live" in the city to be elected mayor, much less show up for work? Plus I already have a Hustler Club down there on Bourbon St, which would save the city a bundle on office space, secretaries, VIP conference rooms and Congressional liaisons." Larry Mack went on to further expoundulate upon his new fetish for Louisiana politics, "New Hell! I've been making a shit load of money off of Louisiana politicians for years. It’s just lately that I didn't even have to pay any money up front. Wish I'd'a figured that one out sooner, like when I was opening my club. Jezuz'Judaz! Now THAT cost a forkin' tub-0-greese! But it turns out to be a much better return on investment this way. Yeah, there's the cost of the occasional lie detector test, but that's what, 150 bucks? Chump change. That reward money I used to entrap, errra, I mean…ensnare Sen. Bob “Make a” Livingston? It all came from donations! I swear! Every penny. Really. It's true! And get this, the magazine revenues generated by that one 'outing' paid for a lot of my girls finish high school—er’a, I mean college, let me tell you. I swear! Every penny. Really. It's true! And this guy Vitter? Aw man, what a gold mine! I can’t beat 'em off with a stick!" Finally, I asked the the Porn King and Potential Potentate if he wasn't at least slightly afraid of another hurricane striking the city, and his plans for evacuation, given the current mayor's state of preparedness and his own evacuationally challenged modus ambulatus. "You are kidding right?", rasped Flynt, "Why, I've been shot at, laid out, blacked-out, black-mailed and priority-mailed. I've been rolled, bowled, doled, trolled, pimped and gimped. I've had my chest shaved. I've had my legs shaved. Wanna see my butt? I've even had my butt shaved! And don't ask me about wax jobs. I've been whipped, dipped, stripped and tipped. I've had midgets walk all over my back in gold lame‘ and purple rhinestone spiked heels while drinking gatorade and laughing like cute little tiger munch'kins. I'm so bad my mama had to ask permission for me to attend elementary school. My daddy used to beat me over the head just for lookin' crosseyed. You think I'm gonna be afraid of a little old hurricane? Damn Right! But I have a plan. A big plan. Big big big. We'll market New Orleans as, get ready, you're gonna love it…we'll get Fox to do a cop show, right? Name it: "Hustler & Blow", about a white chic/black guy team, where she's not really a chic and he's not really a cop or black or even from Louisiana and needs a blow job every couple of hours to stay focused... Anyway, I'll be long gone before any of you suckers even think about calling the mayor with your problems. Evacuation Esshhmacuation! " Campaign slogan anyone?
like
dislike
