Keith Thomson makes a convincing argument for online gambling sites as a more reliable predictor of presidential victory than cable and network news. Some prime pieces of evidence:
Michael Robb, political expert for the British bookmaking site Betfair.com, lets the record speak for itself: Halfway through Election Day in 2004, when a CNN poll showed Kerry taking the lead, Betfair had Bush with a 91% chance to win. Betfair also had all 50 states right in 2004. As did rival site Intrade.
Currently, Betfair lists Barack Obama as an overwhelming 1-7 favorite (paying $8 for a $7 winning bet). A John McCain win would pay $6.80 for every dollar bet.
"On Election Night I'll look at the movement on the betting sites to see what's going on," Strumpf says. "I watch CNN too, out of the corner of an eye, but it's not necessary."
A friendly reminder: Wagering on elections is illegal in America.