Tuesday, November 4, 2008
The Gambit/WWL election night liveblog begins!
Posted by Kevin Allman on Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 11:57 PM
I'm at WWL-TV with Clancy DuBos for the duration -- he's finishing a Matassa's sandwich and will be liveblogging some early numbers in the next few minutes. Newsroom is buzzing, people are power-eating pizza for the long (or maybe short?) night, and someone just walked by asking "Which has the biggest point spread -- Obama or the Saints?"
Clancy will be here any moment.
Comments (7)
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Clancy, While the race for president is obviously tremendously important, the notion that the second most important race by far is the upcoming Cao v. Jefferson or Moreno ( probably William Jefferson) has seemed to fly under the wire. That race seems more important to Louisiana and the Gulf Coast than any but that for President for these reasons. While the Senate can literally blackball any projects for our region, a House member can do so in fact just by shear will. It is not hard to imagine that with the economic crisis upon us and the strain of two wars that the odds are high that a junior Representative Tom, Dick or Harriet might get up on the high horse and lambaste a re-elected William Jefferson. Any one of the hundreds of Representatives would be able to paint all in Louisiana as thieves, based on a Jefferson re-election, much too easily if they felt the need to keep money from here in order to go there in this too tight economy. Thoughts?
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I think the anticipated Jefferson versus Cao race will take on a much higher profile now that the Democratic runoff and the presidential race are behind us. Starting tomorrow, that general election will be more than 4 weeks away, and you can bet the GOP will pour a ton of money and other resources into Cao's campaign. I doubt Obama and the Democrats will do likewise for Jefferson. Which brings me to your next point. I disagree that one House member can stonewall a project for Louisiana — unless that member is a committee chair or ranking member in the majority. However, your point is well taken in that a re-elected Bill Jefferson sends a horrible message about New Orleans and Louisiana. Even without one member "taking the mic" against us, as you suggest, we will have to struggle to get any appreciable aid from the House because of the damage to our image. The good news, regardless of what happens to Jefferson, is that Mary Landrieu (assuming she is re-elected) is well positioned on the Senate Appropriations Committee to deliver for Louisiana. In fact, she's virtually our ONLY representative in Washington who has some semblance of meaningful seniority. (Besides Jefferson, who has been stripped of his clout, the next most senior member of our state's delegation is Rep. Rodney Alexander, a Republican from Monroe, who has a scant 6 years on the Hill.) Overall, you are correct: we will be viewed in a much better light if Dollar Bill is no longer our congressman. If he gets by Helena Moreno as expected, he still has to get by Cao and two other independent candidates. Moreover, the turnout on Dec. 6 will be NOTHING like the turnout we're seeing today.
Clancy, What kind of turnout do you expect for the Dec. 6th race? It's hard for me to imagine that it will be over - let's say 17%. Won't this bode very well for Joseph Cao? And yet, how hard will it be to get Republicans to the polls on that day when they will be either still somewhat despondent after tonight or elated at taking the presidency - either way somewhat unmotivated. What will the trick be to drive Republican turnout on December 6th?
I agree that overall turnout will be low -- probably less than 20 percent overall. However, it very likely will not be the same turnout among black as well as white voters. Historically, in "off" elections such as this, the black turnout drops off precipitously. Let's say, just for purposes of discussion, that the overall turnout is 17 percent, as you suggest. It likely would be about 12 percent among blacks and 22 or 24 percent among whites. Numbers such as those make it entirely possible for Cao to win, for several reasons. First, there are some 19,000 registered Republicans in the Second Congressional District who have not yet had a chance to vote AGAINST Bill Jefferson. Most of them, I suspect, are eager to do so — regardless of what happens tonight in the race for president. Second, I doubt seriously that Barack Obama and the Democrats will go to the well for Jefferson. Their majority will already be well estaablished, and they also will want to get as far from a scandal as they can. Third, the national GOP will pour lots of resources into this race because they see an opening -- and a chance to get a badly needed "win." For a relatively small amount of money nationally ($300,000 or so), the GOP can potentially make a statement. Granted, Cao will have a tough time holding onto this seat in two years, but for now he represents a decent shot for the GOP to win one.
How soon before Governor Jindal comes out strong for Cao would you imagine? Also - what would it mean for New Orleans City Councilman to back Cao and might he do it?
Clancy, While Cao likely will have a tough fight on his hands in two years I would not underestimate him. The more one studies him the deeper he seems. To me he has some of the best qualities that a Barack Obama has - smarts, an ability to bring people together, a moderate temperament and a restraint similar to that described by Roger Cohen recently in the New York Times of Obama. His history too is a uniquely American Story; the kind that can shape great people. As for his performance and positioning - he is a moderate Republican that will truly be able to work across the aisle and though in the minority party get things done. He might well be our next John Breaux or a mirror image of him at least. As the country moves from a center right country to a center center country he, with his Jesuit background and interest in social justice issues, will be well positioned to lead and well reflect the will of the majority. Thoughts?
