Monday, January 4, 2010
This Watershed Election
Posted by Clancy DuBos on Mon, Jan 4, 2010 at 5:53 AM
State Sen. Ed Murray’s withdrawal from the mayor’s race was the latest — and biggest — surprise in a contest that already has had more than its share of unexpected twists and turns. Here’s my take on what happened, why, who benefits, what’s next, and what it means in the long run:
- What Happened
- Murray’s campaign team had a meeting last Wednesday (Dec. 30) to review fresh poll numbers by Silas Lee and to discuss finances and strategy. The poll had Murray in low double digits but with potential to grow among black voters, most of whom (around 55 percent) were voting for frontrunner Mitch Landrieu. The lieutenant governor’s numbers in this poll showed him ahead by a large margin, with nearly 50 percent of the vote. When you account for the fact that “undecided” respondents in a poll tend not to vote, Landrieu already has a majority of the decided vote. Of course, that could change, but that’s where things stood last week.
- The feeling among some of Murray’s top advisers was that, while much of Landrieu’s black support was rooted in a genuine sense of “buyers’ remorse” after Ray Nagin’s dismal performance over the past four years, a lot of that support was “soft” and could be peeled off Landrieu. It would require, however, that Murray attack Landrieu. It also would require Murray to raise another $400,000 to $700,000 to position himself to make a March 6 runoff. Murray already had loaned his campaign several hundred thousand dollars, and the message to him was that he might have to put more of his personal funds into the effort.
- After Wednesday’s meeting, several of Murray’s top campaign folks began raising money and devising a strategy to go after Landrieu. There was even some hope that Orleans DA Leon Cannizzaro might endorse Murray, and soon, which would give his campaign a boost.
- Murray himself, however, was not comfortable turning the race into another contest about race. He spent the next few days doing a gut check and decided on Saturday that he wasn’t going to play a race card just to get elected. Once he made up his mind about that, he moved quickly to get out — surprising even some of his closest friends and supporters. He did not consult with his top campaign strategists before making up his mind to get out.
- Why It Happened
- The biggest surprise (and, to some, disappointment) to many in Murray’s inner political circle was that he made up his mind without consulting them. As is usually the case in a major campaign, Murray’s top advisers were “all in” and did not want him to give up. Had he consulted them about his misgivings, they would have pressed him to stay in the race. No doubt he knew that and chose not to seek their counsel — that is, not to have an argument that could have put friendships on the line.
- Murray’s top supporters and close friends are hurt, and most don’t understand his logic. But anyone who looks at Murray’s decision as a moral choice — particularly anyone who knows Murray — should have no difficulty understanding his decision. I spoke with Murray on Sunday afternoon and, while the conversation was “off the record,” I got the clear impression that he wanted to follow his inner moral compass, not his steering committee’s political advice, on this one. There was also the matter of him possibly having to pony up several hundred thousand more of his own dollars to pursue a strategy that he didn’t like to begin with.
- Politically, Murray faced an uphill fight against Landrieu, but so does everyone in this race. Anybody who runs for mayor of New Orleans — even a frontrunner — faces daunting political challenges. Running for mayor is not for the faint of heart. For Murray, this was a matter of not wanting to do things that he finds morally and political reprehensible in order to win … like playing the race card. He’s never had to do that in the past, it’s not his style, and he didn’t want to change who he is at this stage of his life just to win an election — not even a mayor’s race.
- Who Benefits
- The biggest beneficiary by far is Mitch Landrieu, for several reasons. First and foremost, Murray was easily the one candidate who might have beaten Landrieu straight up. Though not a gifted campaigner, Murray was the only candidate other than Landrieu who had genuine political and governmental experience. That would have allowed black voters to coalesce behind Murray not just because he’s black, but also because he was amply qualified. The remaining black candidates have tepid political experience (or none at all) by comparison, and that plays to Landrieu’s strong suit. Polls still show that, after eight years of “businessman” Ray Nagin, voters want someone who knows the political ropes. Now nobody fits that bill like Landrieu. Add a strong dose of buyers’ remorse, and it’s easy to see why he’s now a prohibitive favorite.
- Second, Landrieu was near or above the magic 50 percent margin in most polls even before Murray got out of the race. He doesn’t need all of Murray’s votes, just some of them, to go solidly over the top. Given Murray’s philosophical and geographic base, it’s a safe bet that Landrieu will get a good share of Murray’s vote.
- Third, if the leading black candidate effectively concedes that Landrieu can’t be beat — or can only be challenged at the risk of a racially divisive campaign — it further underscores the growing sense that a Landrieu victory is inevitable. That takes the wind out of everybody else’s sails and will make fundraising for most of them even more difficult than it is already. A note of caution to Landrieu, however: Don’t go popping any champagne corks just yet. There’s still five weeks left in the primary, and momentum has a funny way of changing in a campaign. It ain’t over ’til it’s over.
- What’s Next
- There are still plenty of others in the African-American political community who don’t mind playing the race card. In fact, they can’t wait to play it. They’re looking for a new horse, but the pickings are slim. Businessman Troy Henry has great energy and fundraising potential, but on paper and on the stump he looks and sounds A LOT like Ray Nagin in 2002. Lawyer James Perry is articulate and passionate, but he has no political stripes whatsoever — and nothing in his background suggests that he would lend himself to a mau-mau campaign or sell his soul to the kind of political players he’s been running against. Former Judge Nadine Ramsey likewise seems ill suited to such a campaign, and she also seems to be struggling to raise money. Henry may emerge as the new consensus black candidate by default, but will middle-class black voters opt to “keep the franchise” at the risk of electing another Ray Nagin? That’s what the next few weeks will tell us — assuming the rest of the field, collectively, can keep Landrieu under 50 percent.
- Speaking of the rest of the field, where does all this leave John Georges and Rob Couhig, the two remaining white candidates? Pretty much where they’ve been all along — struggling for relevance. Georges has enough money to stay on television, but he and Couhig are basically competing for the minority of white voters who hate all the Landrieus. Meanwhile, a growing percentage of black voters seem ready to support Mitch.
- Long-Term Impact
- Murray’s exit has implications even beyond this race. Had he stayed in the contest and won, or even had he lost to Landrieu in a runoff, he would have emerged as the top political player in the black community. He would have filled the void left by Ray Nagin’s exit from City Hall and Bill Jefferson’s fall from grace.
- Now there’s no one to fill that void. And it’s a huge void.
- The lack of a viable second-tier of black candidates in this contest is not a new phenomenon. Go back four years to Nagin’s re-election campaign, and it’s clear that the black community was having a leadership crisis even then. Despite all of Nagin’s failures in the immediate aftermath of Katrina, no one of substance rose from the black community to challenge Nagin. All those black political groups that include the word “leadership” in their names and/or mottos have failed to produce a new generation of black leaders ready to compete citywide.
- Go back a generation to Dutch Morial and you’ll see a guy who mentored aspiring young black men and women. Murray was one of Dutch’s protégés. So is Sheriff Marlin Gusman, Judges Michael and Dennis Bagneris, and others. But, after Marc Morial was mayor, there’s a break in the line of succession. Most of the old political organizations are in tatters, and the next generation of young black leaders is either not interested in being mayor or not interested in politics, period. One prominent black elected official confided to me recently, “I tell my child not to go into politics because it’s a rotten business.”
- So where does that leave a community that wants to hold onto a franchise that it fought for decades to get?
- Maybe, as one black friend of mine suggested recently, it’s time to re-examine (and possibly re-define) what the franchise is. “What we worked so hard to accomplish for decades was not supposed to be just about us getting elected,” he said. “It was supposed to be about judging people not on the basis of the color of their skin, but on the content of their character. For years we gave that message to white folks hoping to get blacks elected. Now it seems to be our turn to hear it played back to us.”
- For a lot of reasons, Murray’s exit is part of a larger story of this watershed election.
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Comments (24)
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I can't believe you are peddling this. Murray has been playing the race for over a year -- the masters plan, defunding the oig because the black guy couldnt get an interview, etc - and you know as well as I do what happened here. georges was going to go public with those photos and the video. even murray's inner circle has admitted it. while i think murray is a good man and i admire you for trying to explain away his sudden exit and frame it as somehow honorable you are not being honest with your readers.
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[When you account for the fact that “undecided” respondents in a poll tend not to vote,] Please pardon my bourgeois naivete here, buuuut, how do you know that? How is this established as "the fact"? With another Poll? And I thought 25% lied in exit polls? How does one establish the veracity of Poll (survey) Facts and Poll (election) Facts? Thank you, this is an honest question I have always wondered about when you guys start this sports talk. The rest of you commentary is great, Clancy, as usual... I mean, is this even a serious mayoral race any more than Jacobs' was a serious campaign? I don't see it, can't see the forest for the polls.
Eastnolapi, Murray's bill on the Master Plan was indeed supported by most if not all of the Legislative Black Caucus, but it also was backed by white developers and several white neighborhood associations in Murray's district. It was portrayed as a racial thing by supporters of the Master Plan, who ultimately prevailed. As for funding the OIG, that's a city council issue and Murray is a state senator. I don't think he ever voted on that issue. With regard to the alleged photos and video that Georges "was going to go public with," you need to stop believing amateur political pundits; they don't know what they're talking about. Their sources are not "Murray's inner circle." My sources are. I doubt those amateurs could even name Murray's inner circle; I was talking to Murray's inner circle -- face to face -- an hour after Murray announced his exit Saturday night. Georges had nothing to do with it. Besides, what good would it do Georges to force Murray out of the race by blackmailing or strong-arming him? Murray now goes back to the state Senate, where he is by everyone's account a very effective lawmaker -- and all of Georges' $1 billion-a-year businesses are regulated by the state. Georges isn't that dumb. He can't afford to have a guy like Murray angry at him in the Lege. Moreover, Georges' polls (and most others) had Georges in second place. Why blackmail the third-place guy to get him out? Georges initially had those photos (and alleged video) because he was hoping the runoff would be between him and Murray -- and he'd use them in the runoff to win the race, not in the primary to push Murray out and make him a lifelong enemy. Mitch Landrieu's entry into the race changed everything. If anything, Georges wants Murray to be his ally and friend at this point. He needs Murray's endorsement and Murray's supporters to get in the game against Landrieu. Using blackmail techniques would not get that done. Editilla, I base my statement about "undecideds" not voting on the word of veteran experts like the late Joe Walker and Ed Renwick, who were the two best (and most honest) pollsters I have ever known. They have tracked voter attitudes for decades. While it's not quantifiable that every specific "undecided" voter fails to show up on election day, Walker and Renwick taught me that the proportions hold up. That is, if you take out the undecideds and apportion the "decided" vote amongst the candidates, you get a picture of what the election results would have been on the day the poll was taken. I am NOT saying that polls predict the outcome of an election. Rather, taking out the "undecideds" is just one step in understanding the nuances of a good poll. Others include looking at the racial, geographic, gender and other breakdowns and trying to determine who is mostly likely to show up on election day. As for 25% lying in exit polls, the polls being conducted right now are not "exit polls." Exit polls are done on election day as people leave the voting areas. Walker told me that exit polls do have a slightly higher margin of error, but only slightly -- 5% as opposed to 3% or 4% -- and it was not so much because people lie as because so many refuse to reveal how they voted. Good questions, though. Thanks for asking.
The only thing I don't understand about this is, if Murray's people determined that their best strategy would have been to "attack Mitch" then why does everyone automatically assume such and attack would have to be race-based? Surely there are other ways the candidate could have distinguished himself from his opponent.
Wait. Clancy clarify this for me. You write, "Georges initially had those photos (and alleged video) because he was hoping the runoff would be between him and Murray — and he’d use them in the runoff to win the race, not in the primary to push Murray out and make him a lifelong enemy. Mitch Landrieu’s entry into the race changed everything." That looks like you're saying these "photos" actually exist regardless of Georges' decision to use them. Is this what you're saying? Because it does give the "amateur pundits" some credence if true.
Great analysis and information. I sold Murray short but now I understand. I have read some posters lately who refer to a younger African American vote that it tired of the race card. Have you run across this?
Since Jeffrey posted twice, I guess I can too. Any possibility of a story on the Nagin Georges connection?
This story reveals a lot of things: Clancy, you contradict yourself: Jeffrey has a point when he raises this >Wait. Clancy clarify this for me. You write, “Georges initially had those photos (and alleged video) because he was hoping the runoff would be between him and Murray — and he’d use them in the runoff to win the race, not in the primary to push Murray out and make him a lifelong enemy. Mitch Landrieu’s entry into the race changed everything.” - That looks like you’re saying these “photos” actually exist regardless of Georges’ decision to use them. Is this what you’re saying? Because it does give the “amateur pundits” some credence if true.< So in terms of his being aware of consequences via Murray in the "Lege": Georges has the pics, and Murray knows that, and Murray would be angry if Georges threatened him with them NOW but NOT if he did so LATER? Oh no, if the films exist they exist and that's enough for anyone. On LivOutLoud's question, "Any possibility of a story on the Nagin Georges connection?" --- LOL, YES! Georges was in business with ROY RODNEY AND RAY NAGIN in the old Hockey club the NO Brass. Georges is the stand-in for the Nagin krewe folks, someone needs to start saying it. Nagin said two weeks ago or so that people would be dropping out, well here we are and it's happening. Regardless of the poll numbers, I bet Murray was going to get the greater portion of the black vote on primary day. IF so, then he would have likely been in the runoff with Georges. Now Georges is essentially facing Landrieu, and the breakdown gets a lot more favorable because (a) he can get the default vote from Couhig/Nagin umbraged conservatives and (b) the racial element is left out of things (people can say Landrieu will have the cred with the black vote but remember Georges in a similar scenario got the most Orleans votes in the black electorate in the governors' race, and he4 also might be helped by a dwindled turnout by black voters who are just plain discouraged). One other thing: If all this is machination by Georges, there is one other element - Troy Henry still is the one other guy (nesides Georges/Landrieu) with a load of money to spend independently; he could sneak in and knock out Georges AND Landrieu. Watch for a heavy dose of spending from Henry as he smells a void and tries to take advantage. Yeah, yeah, he has the stigma of being the private businessman with money a la Nagin, but folks he's smart, well-funded and has some serious potential voter identification on his side.
This cracks me up: >Henry may emerge as the new consensus black candidate by default, but will middle-class black voters opt to “keep the franchise” at the risk of electing another Ray Nagin?< Ha, YEAH, black voters did it once before with the REAL Ray Nagin.
Sobieski: "Georges in a similar scenario got the most Orleans votes in the black electorate in the governors’ race, and he4 also might be helped by a dwindled turnout by black voters who are just plain discouraged)." Not a similar scenario. Georges' opponents were a Republican and an ex-Republican Chalmatian-- neither of which really campaigned in Orleans parish or made it a priority. Georges poured money into Orleans yet only got a small majority of the votes. Can't compare running against Jindal or Boasso to running against Landrieu.
Oyster: I meant it was a similar scenario only in regards to there being no other major black candidate. Did the black electorate really turn out in that one? Because my impression was many stayed at home, and that could happen again. I cannot recall or pull what Georges did in Orleans but he did win the plurality in the Parish with 36% overall; Jindal got 35%, Boasso 20%, Campbell 8%. Boasso [he may have been Republican, but the man was never a conservative, spoke eloquently on the storm recovery, and ran as a Democrat with a Democratic ] platform and Campbell would have been the "D" votes there, no? Jindal did pull black electorate votes in that race (some, I think), so I am not really sure why georges wouldn't and couldn't be looking to replay these numbers, and maybe that was what he was thinking when he got in the race. - Is the assumption here that Landrieu will do well or better than Henry+Perry+Ramsey in the black electorate? - Is there any reason to think Landrieu will do better than his 20% of the black electorate he polled vs Nagin? - On the last point if people are thinking that Landrieu has his "name", or rather his Dad's name, well (1) that was a long time ago, (2) there may be an impact from bitter feelings (right, wrong or even unfounded) of resentment from the idea that Landrieu forced Murray out, and (3) lingering feelings from the Nagin campaign wherein he got plainly pegged as the "white" candidate, the "white guy returning" to resume the mantle of power. The TP back after the governor's race had a breakdown by race (& etc.) and it would be good to look at that again (though I can't quite seem to find it on the net).
By the way, someone needs to tell Mitch Landrieu that he appears to be making the same mistakes all over again: He's not mentioining corruption, he's not mentioning the damage caused by the contracting process, he's not backing or proposing any ethics reforms beyond saying he will be a "good/ethical" guy/mayor, and he's hardly ramping it up beyond tepidness. He can't just "show up", he had better start making a real, aggressive campaign that shows he really wants it because he could lose this one too.
Got the old Brass Nagin-Georges connection as well as the 2002 SuperBowl and the George Bush matching contribution but a new news story would be great. We have lots of blog references but not the legitimacy of a news story.
@Sobieski- I know we touched on this on tLC, but I just saw Gthulhorges (get it! half Cthulhu half Georges -pronounced Ga-thor-jez or something... It'll look cool on a t-shirt trust me) Anyway. Just saw the new Gthulhorges (give it time) commercial and I thought... I've actually seen Landruie more in "Gthulhorges" commercials than his own. Not that I need TV to tell me things, but Landrieu's lack of media presence makes me feel like he's really not trying. Maybe he thinks he can pull it out despite going in on a losing streak?
Sobieski: I agree that Mitch needs to step up the anti-corruption rhetoric. He is not endearing himself to this electorate if he does not address and have a plan to change the process that allows corruption to flourish. Mitch: Talk about the contracts if you are for real!!
This is an interesting thread. A couple of observations: 1.) Other than investing in the N.O. Brass, I know of no tangible connection Georges has to Nagin, so that one seems tenuous, at best, and most likely pretty unlikely. 2.) What pictures of Murray that Georges allegedly has are we talking about here? Is this a fact or innuendo? 3.) It's laughable that Georges's wealth is supposed to be some sort of negative. He's the only guy that can't be bought! Whatever happened to noblesse oblige? 4.) Whether he's a great guy or not, Mitch is old style machine politics. 5.) Nagin's weakness wasn't being a political outsider, it was that he was a political neophyte, and non too sharp, to boot. Although the outsider thing has been used and abused, this is a race where it actually counts. (Oh, and Nagin was never a "successful businessman." Cox is a horrific company to deal with, and a monopoly, to boot. Where's the success? Ok...I had more than a couple of points, but at least I didn't post twice! Good thread...especially liked the tidbit about undecideds.
Not so very tenuous. Lots of man luv going round and doesn't appear that they have broken up. During the primary campaign, the Orleans Parish Democratic Executive Committee ran an ad pointing out that Nagin, a Democrat, donated to Republican George W. Bush’s presidential campaign and nothing to “our candidate, Al Gore”. The gift was thought to hurt Nagin in New Orleans, which is 69% Democratic. “Nagin explained the Bush donation like this: He was raising money for Avis Russell, the former city attorney under Mayor [Marc Morial] who was seeking a spot on the 4th Circuit Court of Appeal. He hit up John Georges, a businessman who is Nagin's partner in the New Orleans Brass, for a donation. Georges agreed, Nagin said, provided Nagin would give a like-sized gift to Bush.” Fireworks did initially not characterize the runoff campaign demonstrated by the two candidates. For example, on the day after the primary election Pennington and Nagin arrived unceremoniously at a French Quarter television studio at 8 a.m., Nagin alone and Pennington accompanied only by his driver and a public relations aide. Inside, the two men sat on stools facing each other without animosity. Both attended the Super Bowl with Nagin sitting with his friend restaurateur and campaign treasurer David White in a luxury box belonging to businessman John Georges (his and White’s partner as co-owners of the New Orleans Brass minor-league hockey team) and Pennington sitting in a suite with US Representative William Jefferson, D-New Orleans, his campaign chairman, and other supporters. Congressman Jefferson became well known during the US Congress House hearings on the Hurricane Katrina response.
Oh, Victor, I couldn't resist!! Any truth to the rumor that Nagin and Georges are partners in a Mexican casino with David White and Nagin's father in law?
Good reading, since looking your post could it be the same about related topics in in avg download
Everybody please go read Cliff's Crib at http://cliffscrib.blogspot.com/2010/01/what-does-it-mean-when-leading-black.html and get a personal validation of what I said about the decline in black leadership. Cliff nails it from the perspective of the folks who have been let down, and he's far more eloquent that I could ever be. It's a must read.
Clancy, This is an excellent article, one that gave me more hope for a city that so many of us love. Regardless of political affiliation, it is smart, dedicated people with passion for New Orleans and New Orleanians that will make this City into more than what is was - into what it could be. Thanks for the inspiration - a nice way to start off the day!
Hey found this site looking up Dutch Morial http://www.carvinseder.com/clients.html Interesting look at political commercials from the past. Especially since the announcer in the "D. Morial Leadership" pronounce 'sewage' as 'suer-edge". What promoted me to look for this? I was wondering... "How would the city have faired during and after Katrina if Marc had gotten his third term?" Other vids of note: Nagin, Couhig, Duke. So pre-Youtube
Clancy: You are right. That is a great and heart breaking article. The dynamic described happens whenever there is corruption that benefits a few and yet leaves others behind. Wish our leaders had not been so short-sighted. I am so dreaming of a day when we look for ethical competency in our leaders. Fairness and equity change things. Our city is ready. We need new leaders.
I know for a fact that Ed Murray has a deal with Landrieu, agreeing to drop out of the mayor’s race in exchange for an endorsement when he enters the LA-2 congressional race against Cao. Its too bad for Cedric Richmond and the rest of black new orleans that Murray sold us out, and may ruin two elections.
