Saturday, January 9, 2010
Another Unique Election
Posted by Clancy DuBos on Sat, Jan 9, 2010 at 5:39 AM
[This is an early posting of my Gambit political column coming out next week.]
The sprint to the Feb. 6 citywide primary officially got underway when state Sen. Ed Murray pulled out of the mayor’s race on Jan. 2. Make no mistake about it, this mayor’s race is a five-week sprint, not an extended campaign. Everything that happened in 2009 was just a warm-up.
Overall, the events of the past week and a half remind me of some wisdom I got long ago from the late Jim Carvin, who handled the winning media for 10 consecutive mayoral elections. “Every election is a unique event,” Jim said.
As candidates, citizens and pundits eye the current election, we should keep Carvin’s wisdom in mind. Ironically, were Carvin still with us, he would be among the first to draw upon the lessons of the past in his attempts to shape the present and the future.
Let’s examine recent events in chronological order, starting with Murray’s exit.
At the end of the day, Murray concluded either that he couldn’t win or that he wasn’t prepared to do what was necessary to win. His biggest mistake was not what he did but how he did it. Murray is taking a lot of hits now in the black community, but the truth is his departure actually helps Troy Henry, who appears to have inherited (or seized) the mantle of the black frontrunner.
Think about it: Now there are only three black candidates as opposed to four. Had Murray stayed in the race, black votes would have been more divided and the dreaded prospect of two whites making the runoff (which I never though would happen, by the way) would have loomed larger. Those in the black community who want to “preserve the Franchise” now have a candidate (in Henry) with the kind of fire that Murray lacked from the outset.
As for Murray’s “late” exit, Henry himself, in his admonition to the media to be fairer in its treatment of all candidates, correctly reminded everyone that there’s plenty of time left. He was also correct that the media should never declare anyone the winner this far in advance.
Look back to 2002 and you can see why. During the same first week of January, then-candidate Ray Nagin reviewed the results of his latest poll with Carvin. He was somewhere around 5 or 6 percent in a crowded field, and he had already put lots of his own money into the campaign. Pollster Joe Walker looked at the survey and said to Nagin, “There’s a way to make this work, but it’s not for the faint-hearted.” Nagin anteed up more of his own money, and the rest is history.
Which makes me laugh when I heard Nagin say last week that he doesn’t believe “those frickin’ polls.” Bull. Were it not for the wisdom and accuracy of his own pollster eight years ago, he would never have become mayor.
Meanwhile, the latest independent poll — the only independent poll that I know of, completed just days before Murray withdrew — showed Murray as the second choice among black voters … and Henry as the leader. In that poll, Henry had 12 percent of the black vote compared to 9 percent for Murray.
That’s the good news for Henry. The bad news, according to the same poll, is that an overwhelming majority of black as well as white voters want “a candidate who has experience in city government” rather than “a candidate who is a fresh face with no experience in government.” The margin: 64 percent for a candidate with experience; 21 percent for a “fresh face.” Even worse, among black voters, 73 percent favor a candidate with experience in government.
In the end, it proves Carvin’s wisdom. There are many similarities between this race and the one in 2002, but every election is a unique event. This one has less than four weeks to play itself out. It promises to be a wild ride.
Comments (15)
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You very well may be right in your first comment, Jeffrey. For that reason, I’d like to add some comments here by way of following up on your observation — comments that, for reasons of space, didn’t make it into the dead-tree edition of Gambit. Here goes: While the poll shows a solid majority of black and white voters not wanting an inexperienced “fresh face” (like Henry), and while that sentiment runs even stronger among black voters (73%), there is a very strong and very deep feeling in the African-American community about the importance of “keeping the Franchise.” (I put that term in quotes here and above because that’s how it has been explained to me over the years by black civic and political leaders.) The survey did not measure the “Franchise” issue, and I suggest that it’s not measurable in a poll. However, history tells us that it trumps just about everything else (even the unpopularity of Ray Nagin, at least in 2006). Suffice it to say that the preference for someone with “governmental experience” conflicts with the preference for keeping the Franchise in this election, because Henry has no such experience and Landrieu has lots of it. How will that conflict be resolved in the black community? That’s what the Henry campaign will be all about in the coming weeks. Consider the following: In the wake of Katrina, the black community has seen a steady erosion of political power in the form of blacks holding major political office. New Orleans no longer has a black majority on the City Council or its School Board; the DA is white (though he is popular in the black community and got almost half the black vote against a qualified but not well known black opponent in the primary); the congressman (for now) is Asian; several judgeships that were once held by blacks are now held by whites; and the white majority on the City Council could possibly grow from 4-3 to 5-2 as a result of this election. Given those developments, the mayor’s office will loom large as the last vestige of black political power and influence — one that should not be given up. Right now, polls show Mitch Landrieu possibly winning the race outright in the primary. While that’s POSSIBLE, it would be unprecedented in a mayor’s race. (Note that David Vitter and Bobby Jindal did the equivalent in statewide contests. While similar circumstances exist in this race, I think it’s a longshot for Landrieu to pull it off here.) At a minimum, Henry is poised to become the consensus black candidate. He already leads among black voters in the polls, and the “Franchise” proponents have quickly galvanized behind him in the wake of Murray’s exit. That movement is going to grow very quickly. Look for ministers to rally behind him this week, and support for Henry in the black community will only increase from there. Where does this leave John Georges? Probably in the same spot as the governor’s race: third place. I never thought there would be two whites in the runoff, and that possibility is even more remote now. Georges will play a significant role in the election, however, because his candidacy makes it all the more likely that there will be a runoff. Once it goes to a runoff, the momentum (and emotional appeal) of keeping the Franchise will increase further — giving us the “racially divisive campaign” that Murray says drove him to the sidelines. In fairness to Henry, he’s a far better campaigner than Murray, and he will likely get better in the weeks ahead as his campaign picks up steam.
Interesting. I have been working in New Orleans East and hear a lot of different things. No one knows Henry and no one trusts Georges (even with his "I am an African American candidate comment"). I guess people can learn about Henry, but he is reminding people a lot of Nagin and the news conference did not help him. He seems to want credibility and respect without having to earn it. Anyway, interesting view point. I think James Perry is being overlooked and has more connections to New Orleans than Henry. He just can't push past Henry's bull pulpit. Why not?
Sime, Perry would be great, but he seems to have confined his campaign to the internet and to all of these forums/debates/meet-and-greets. He still doesn't seem to have gotten that he needs to be going to where the people who live here and who actually be voting in this election are. Sad, really, because he would be good.
The surprise to me here is that Henry was polling ahead of Murray. But I hadn't been paying much attention to polls this year. Instead I've been counting imaginary voting blocks based on the 2006 primary results. But since Carvin says "every election is unique" I'm probably doing something stupid. On the other hand, I'm not exactly wrong yet....
And just why is a scenario of two white candidates for mayor being in the runoff such a "dreaded prospect?" Look how poorly this city has done since black mayors became the norm. We need someone with an education that is greater than that you get at Southern University.
I know this is a silly question for any politician, but does it matter that Henry is a liar? http://theamericanzombie.blogspot.com/2010/01/who-is-troy-henry-reallywho-is-he.html And, it seems that Henry pulled this Race Card as a quick trump --the day or so after Perry pulled it on Huffington Post where he actually campaigns. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-perry/its-time-to-be-honest-abo_b_411944.html It is almost like the Black Politicos are playing Racial 3 Card Monte with their own base? Who'z gonna get the card?
Linda that comment has a very condescending tone. Troy Henry has an educational resume that most of us will envy and admire. What he does not have is a verified track record of SUCCESS. United Water (SUEZ) is a charley foxtrot. ENRON was a charley foxtrot. Claiming to be President of United Water and its 1500 employees is much different than actually being President of the South region that includes the Atlanta experience. Do I want a mayor who once thought it a good idea to privatize my city's water supply? (Google- Atlanta United Water Suez) The success of Pontchartrain Park is still unproven (how many people will survive the qualification gauntlet and how well will it turn out when purchasers who can only qualify for $ 80 k homes have to maintain and pay taxes on $ 180 k homes?). If we had checked out Ray Nagin’s credentials 8 years ago (I wish that I had been birtheresc) and checked out Ray’s CPA claim we may not have been the position that we are today. The more that I see Troy Henry the more that I envision another Ray Nagin.
Here's my problem with Henry. And I'll admit I like a lot of what he says, but: Does anyone remember when Nagin first took office how he got in trouble with many blacks for his "We be's" comment and then again for his (paraphrasing) "People here think the mayor is supposed to fix their teeth for them." And of course later "Chocolate City". -Because we elected a guy who was supposed to be about business. What I mean is, yeah, in some ways its music to my ears to hear Henry say he'll kick-ass and fire people and do all these things that will streamline government and let people know he doesn't play games. And he's Wicked Smart... but I want some one who will work WITH the public trust. And the public isn't something that will work efficiently. Yeah, if its your company... Enforce a dress code; expect people to show up a half-hour before you open. But the public, You serve them. And people want weird and contradicting things - especially in New Orleans. Ultimately, some one who can be open and not ridicule the public. Some one who includes the public by saying, "Hey, what "do" we want to accomplish as a community? What kind of jobs, policing, policies? Once WE decide, then WE have to understand there's a hundred ways to accomplish that so which paths do we choose?" I don't know... Here's my one sentence summation: I don't feel New Orleans needs a personal trainer to WHIP Its Ass into shape, so much as a PARTNER who will work with it as it shapes up. ugh, I do need to get to the gym...
Although Henry is polling well, he is anemic on fundraising when you take into consideration how much he raised from himself, family members, out of state contributors and Wendell Pierce. He has only raised $98K from local businesses and individuals. Guess this will change soon. Thanks for all the info and analysis. Not too fond of those who pad their resumes. Be proud of who you are.
I still think Mitch wins in the primary with Henry at around 20% and Georges fading fast. He's overpandered in the last few days.
I believe Nagin fatigue has sapped the energy of the African American community. There is widespread disaffection from Nagin but no animosity toward Mitch and no compelling alternative. I believe that ambivalence will lead to low voter turnout in the African American community and a possibility that Mitch will win in the primary. To me this largely explains the recent efforts by entrenched interests to ramp up the racial rhetoric. And I'm not sure that Mitch is the best choice.
do we really believe that New Orleans voters, both black and white, will elect a Nagin clone like Henry, especially with Henry's baggage as a top Enron executive deeply involved in the energy scandals and accounting irregularities in the biggest corporate failure in u.s. history? and what of Henry's experience with United Water in Atlanta (where the United Water contract was cancelled on Henry's watch), and Henry's bid to privitize the S&WB with the paid help of Pampy Barre'? Henry, like Nagin, was a supporter of George W. Bush also. . But the big difference that I think Clancy completely misses, is that in 2002, Nagin was not the choice of a majority of African American voters; Nagin got an overwhelming majority of white voters and a little more than a quarter of African American voters. . . White voters had no viable white candidate to vote for, so they selected someone they felt comfortable with, a self styled businessman with republican credentials and a supporter and contributor to George W. Bush. . . And where did that get us?
